Quantitative momentum, embedded in a multi-asset allocation across three uncorrelated asset classes. 100% rule-based. Backtested since 1995. Even through the worst bear markets in modern history, the strategy delivers stellar risk-adjusted returns.
Backtested Results | Not Live ReturnsHow the System Works
The system is fully algorithmic — no discretionary changes, no manual overrides, no exceptions. It generates signals, and those signals get executed. Period. The strategy allocates across three largely uncorrelated return streams: US equities (Nasdaq 100), gold, and Bitcoin. Momentum-driven rotation happens within the equity sleeve; the three asset classes are reallocated to their base weights once a year. Each asset class serves a distinct role — stocks deliver growth, gold delivers stability, and Bitcoin delivers asymmetric upside. They don't move in lockstep. That's not a coincidence. That's the point.
A long-term technical trend filter protects the equity sleeve during bear markets. It has fired exactly three times in 31 years: during the dot-com bust in 2000, the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, and the COVID crash in 2020. Not trigger-happy. But each time — exactly when it mattered most — the equity sleeve was protected. And each time, the strategy came back.
The numbers speak for themselves: win rate 59.5%, profit factor 2.45. Worst year was 2022 at -15.8%. Best year was 2020 at +108.2% — despite the COVID crash. Systematic beats gut feel.
Asset Allocation
When stocks fall, gold tends to move in the opposite direction. Bitcoin moves independently of both. Drawdown correlations range from -0.05 (NDX/Gold) to 0.03 (Gold/BTC) — measured over 30 years. Most "diversified" portfolios have drawdown correlations of 0.6 or higher. Everything tanks together. This portfolio doesn't.
| Period | NDX | Gold | BTC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-2015 | 50% | 50% | 0% |
| 2015–2018 | 50% | 45% | 5% |
| 2019–2022 | 50% | 40% | 10% |
| 2023–2024 | 50% | 30% | 20% |
| 2025+ | 50% | 28% | 22% |
The strategy evolved with the assets it trades. Bitcoin didn't get a meaningful allocation until it had earned one.
About Me
Diplom-Physiker (biophysics major, economics minor, TU Dresden) with the trained problem-solving eye of the natural scientist. As chairman of the IGBörse student investment club and in Trading Systems Development at HSBC Trinkaus, I learned early that markets need to be approached systematically. Systematic thinking is the thread that runs through everything I do — I spent a year as a trading-strategy developer at a former hedge fund in Düsseldorf, then taught myself Japanese over three years using flashcards and spaced-repetition systems before moving to Tokyo, where I worked as a developer at a tech startup. All of that evolved into a systematic strategy built on empirical evidence — not opinions. I manage the Compounding Knowledge Wikifolio and a portfolio on eToro. 31 years of backtest data. Three asset classes. Zero discretionary overrides.
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Risk Disclaimer The contents are for information purposes only. Capital investment involves risks. No investment advice.